- Mar 26, 2025
- Posted by: Sébastien Bonneau
Quebec, Canada’s vibrant and culturally distinct powerhouse, stands at a pivotal juncture as it navigates a confluence of trends that will influence its political landscape. We believe Quebec politics will be shaped by intersecting dynamics: the reinforcement of its linguistic and cultural identity, an accelerated transition to a decarbonized economy, the recalibration of fiscal and labour strategies amid demographic shifts and fiscal pressures and its leadership in emerging sectors, like artificial intelligence. We will explore these topics in more detail.
1. Identity and Culture
Quebec’s political debate has been historically defined by its pursuit of affirmation and self-determination as a nation. Under Premier François Legault and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) government, the focus has shifted from debating Quebec’s political future to creating more wealth while seeking greater autonomy within Canada. Key issues driving this agenda include:
Linguistic Policy and Implications
As the government of the only French-majority society in North America, the CAQ aims to strengthen its use in the province. The recently passed Bill 96 (2022) has ignited lively discussions over its practicality, especially for businesses, its effects on minority communities, and its implications for Quebec’s economic competitiveness in a globalized world. Proponents, however, frame it as a bulwark against linguistic erosion, citing declining French usage in society. While the government seeks to safeguard the province’s cultural and linguistic identity, ongoing policy discussions are expected in the coming years. Amid growing pressure from civil society and opposition parties to preserve and promote the French language, businesses may be further impacted.
Immigration and Identity:
As Quebec’s demographic landscape becomes increasingly diverse, it faces new challenges. Debates about immigration policy will therefore continue to be central to provincial politics, intertwined with efforts to protect and promote the French language and cultural identity. The CAQ government seeks to strike a delicate balance. It wants to address the needs of the labour market through immigration, but it also wants to ensure that newcomers integrate well into Quebec’s unique linguistic and cultural fabric to maintain French as the common language. The debate surrounding immigration will also be influenced by the ripple effects of Bill 21 (2019), which bans religious symbols for certain public employees, as the government looks to strengthen secularism in the province.
2. Transportation, Energy and Natural Resources
Over the next five years, Quebec will advance its environmental leadership, building on its status as Canada’s leader in renewable energy, thanks to its abundance of hydroelectricity capacity. As climate change intensifies, the province faces growing momentum to strengthen sustainability effort across critical sectors like transportation, agriculture, and construction, reinforcing its role in the global shift towards a greener future.
Transportation and a Sustainable Economy:
Quebec’s ambitious sustainable mobility policy, slated for full implementation by 2030, is underpinned by nearly $10 billion in investments. This strategy prioritizes transformative upgrades to public transit and active transportation infrastructure while leading the electrification of personal and commercial vehicles to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Paired with Hydro-Québec’s $90–110 billion plan to boost renewable energy capacity by 2035—paving the way to double electricity production by 2050. These initiatives aim to decarbonize its economy, particularly in the transportation and industrial sectors, fuel economic growth, and position Quebec as a sustainability leader on the world stage by mid-century.
Energy and Natural Resources:
Quebec’s annual $2 billion oil import bill poses a significant barrier to its green transition, particularly in the transportation sector, where fossil fuel reliance undermines the province’s renewable energy leadership. This dependency highlights the pressing need for increased investment in clean alternatives to achieve the goal of reducing petroleum use in transportation by 40% using Quebec’s renewable energy advantage.
Meanwhile, the surging global demand for natural resources and critical minerals offers Quebec a strategic opportunity to play a pivotal role. With its abundant, low-cost hydroelectric power, strong mining capabilities, and rich mineral deposits, the province is well positioned to become a vital supplier in the energy transition. Quebec aims to leverage these assets to create jobs, build wealth, and diversify its export markets, while embedding itself in the value-added supply chain for high-demand products. These include electric vehicle batteries, clean aluminum, and innovative green tech solutions—turning its resource advantage into a catalyst for sustainable growth.
3. Demographic Shifts, Fiscal Policy and Economic Innovation
Quebec’s political agenda over the next five years will need to navigate a dynamic economic landscape shaped by demographic changes, growing healthcare demands, and innovation. The province’s aging population will increase the need for long-term care and medical services, prompting a strategic focus on strengthening the healthcare system and optimizing public finances to sustain its robust social programs and services requiring leadership to foster high-growth sectors, like artificial intelligence.
Healthcare Services:
By 2030, healthcare spending in Quebec is projected to rise to nearly 50% of the provincial budget, driven by a vibrant, aging population—expected to reach 23% over age 65 by 2028. With growing demands for services, efforts to streamline emergency room wait times and staff shortages are likely to continue to dominate the public discourse. The recent creation of a state-owned corporation, Santé Québec, with the mandate to ensure a predictable, efficient and sustainable health network, as part of a major health reform, is the CAQ’s government response, with many elements of the reform to be deployed.
Conversations over privatizing healthcare services, or favouring hybrid public-private models, and securing larger federal health transfers will shape discussions on ways to improve care while respecting taxpayers’ financial capacities. This shift signals an opportunity to spark innovative reforms in service delivery and funding that could open doors for businesses in the sector to thrive.
Labour Shortages:
With 1.4 million job vacancies projected by 2028, Quebec faces a critical labour shortage combined with an aging population. To meet this challenge, the province will need to revamp its immigration policies by streamlining processes to attract and retain skilled workers from abroad while aligning newcomer credentials with local needs in a predominantly French-speaking market. The acceleration of investments in automation to bolster economic growth and enhance productivity could also be key to meeting these labour challenges. However, success depends on balancing these strategies with training programs to upskill existing workers, ensuring that automation complements rather than displaces the workforce, thereby sustaining Quebec’s economic vitality by embracing demographic challenges with confidence.
AI as a Growth sector:
While the mining, aluminum and the aerospace industry or life science will remain vectors of Quebec’s economic growth and industrial strategy, with its highly educated workforce, it is rapidly emerging as a key hub in the global technology sector, with a particular emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI). In the last couple of years, the province has made significant strides in AI research and development, positioning itself as a leader in this field, namely with over $140 million in public investment in recent years.
Quebec now accounts for 40% of Canada’s AI talent. Montreal’s burgeoning AI hub, anchored by innovative players like Element AI, the renowned Mila research institute, represents a vital economic sector for Quebec and Professor Yoshua Bengio from l’Université de Montréal. This thriving ecosystem, bolstered by a rich talent pool from local universities and a collaborative tech community, positions the province as a global contender in artificial intelligence. The technology sector’s potential to drive Quebec’s future economy is significant, but its growth hinges on robust support from targeted government policies and incentives. To that end, the CAQ government is implementing a strategy to position the public administration as an exemplary player in AI, notably by drawing on Quebec’s leadership in this area. However, ethical concerns surrounding AI such as surveillance, bias, and privacy will remain prominent in public and policy discussions and development.
Strategic investments in R&D, tax credits for tech firms and ad initiatives to retain and attract skilled workers will amplify the sector’s impact, offsetting challenges like labour shortages and an aging population to fund public programs and services. If nurtured effectively, this AI-driven momentum could diversify Quebec’s economic footprint, boost productivity, and enhance its competitiveness on the world stage.
Conclusion
Quebec’s political landscape over the next five years will hinge on safeguarding its cultural and linguistic identity, accelerate its environmental ambitions and foster innovation. This approach will propel the province towards a carbon-neutral economy that drives its growth in emerging sectors, like artificial intelligence, to effectively address demographic shifts and fiscal pressures. By doing so, Quebec will not only meet the current and future needs of its citizens but also secure a prosperous and sustainable future.
Source:
- The National Assembly of Quebec – https://www.assnat.qc.ca
- CBC News – Quebec Politics – https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal
- Coalition Avenir Québec – https://coalitionavenirquebec.org
- La Presse – Quebec Politics – https://www.lapresse.ca
- Transporting Quebec Towards Modernity – https://www.transports.gouv.qc.ca
- Towards a decarbonized and prosperous Quebec – https://www.hydroquebec.com