- Mar 24, 2025
- Posted by: Sébastien Bonneau
As the federal election race begins, the Liberal Party of Canada, now led by Mark Carney, holds 153 seats, followed by the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, with 120. The Bloc Québécois sits at 33 seats, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 25, and the Green Party at 2. With the starting line set, how will the finish line look on April 28?
Priorities of Canadians
First off, Canadian priorities have shifted dramatically since the re-election of President Donald Trump. The latest Leger poll pegs U.S. tariffs, Trump and U.S. aggression as the most important issues for 41% of Canadians. This is in line with a recent Abacus poll that tracks this at 50%. Yet cost of living remains the dominant issue for 61% of Canadians in the same survey. Not surprisingly, as the manufacturing hub of Canada, where exports to the U.S. account for 74% and 82% of their total exports, it is in Quebec and Ontario that Canadians are most concerned about the U.S. tariffs. Interestingly, older Canadians, particularly those over 55-years-old, also share a high-level of concern. Meanwhile, concerns over the economy remain stable at 36% among Canadians, as per Abacus, but housing affordability and healthcare have slipped to the 4th and 5th national issues.
The Trump Factor and the Election Campaign
The election of President Trump and the resignation of Prime Minister Trudeau have certainly upended the political landscape. The Conservatives once-commanding 20+ point lead evaporated within days of the first tariffs and annexation threats. Heading into the election, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied at 39% and 37% according to the latest aggregated polls. The Liberals are now heavily favoured to form a majority government with 178 seats to the Conservatives’ 131, but still just 7 seats shy of a minority.
What’s driving this seismic shift? Three factors stand out in our opinion. First, some Liberal voters had temporarily parked their vote for the Conservatives, biding time until Trudeau—widely unpopular after nine years in power—announced he was stepping down on January 6. Second, Trump’s election and his tariff threats, paired with talk of annexation, vaulted Canada-U.S. relations to the forefront of voter concern. A staggering 43% of Canadians now fear losing their jobs in the next 12 months, up 3 points in a week. Third, the Liberals hold a commanding edge (+14) over the Conservatives in their ability to handle Trump, according to Abacus. With Trump stating he favoured dealing with Carney; will that sway Canadian voters towards Poilievre going into the election campaign?
The Liberal Playbook
Will this Liberal lead hold in the span of a shorten election under the leadership of the unproven and unelected Mark Carney? His international and banking experience may make for a compelling resume to navigate economic uncertainty and a recession. The jury is still out. Canadians will ultimately decide but the stakes have never been higher, probably not since the 1988 federal election on the free trade agreement. Will it be a single-issue election to determine, “who can best defend Canada against Trump and Tariffs?” It certainly looks that way. Will reneging on key Trudeau measures like the carbon tax or the capital gains tax be enough for Canadians to forget what many have called the “lost decade”? Carney certainly hopes, as he’s already presenting himself as “Canada’s new government.”
The Conservative Playbook
The Conservatives, however, aren’t out of the race. While any leader in a modern democracy would much prefer a 20+ point lead, the fact of the matter is that with those numbers, support for the Conservatives would likely only go down during an election campaign. The media love a horse race, after all. On key issues—cost of living (+17), the economy (+18), immigration (+43), and crime (+35)—Abacus data shows Canadians trust the Conservatives most. Poilievre’s challenge is clear: broaden the campaign’s focus beyond the “Daily Trump Show” to the issues that also matter, and hope Canadians are tuning in while tying in Carney to Trudeau’s record.
The Abacus poll shows that the Conservatives hold a snug lead among the 30 to 44 age group voters (+6) and are very competitive among the 45 to 59 segment (+8). Both parties are practically tied among voters 18 to 29 years old who are less likely to vote. In a tight race, the ground campaign and the ability of leaders to get the vote out on V-Day will be even more important this time around.
A Minority or Majority Government and its implications for Canadians.
Ontario, which saw a bloc of voters switch back to supporting Liberals, will be the key battle ground for both the Conservatives and Liberals, while support in Quebec may make the difference between a majority or minority government, depending on how federalist parties perform in the province. With just seven seats projected for the New Democrats, a repeat of the Liberals-NDP de facto coalition from the last parliament seems improbable today, a (14%) chance, according to www.338canada.com. Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois has firmly rejected blanket support for any party, further complicating the path to a stable government in a minority situation.
If a progressive Trudeau couldn’t get NDP voters to support his agenda in the last election to form a majority, it’s hard to believe that Mark Carney, the international banker, will fare much better among those voters if the race tightens up. A minority government might embolden President Trump amid threats to Canada’s sovereignty and economy. In contrast, a majority government would empower the next Prime Minister to confront Trump from a position of strength, armed with the legitimacy and flexibility needed to navigate the challenge more effectively.
Conclusion
A hurdle for Pierre Poilievre might be to convince Canadians that the Liberals—who oversaw near-zero per capita GDP growth in the past decade, witnessed a housing crisis and dismissed the possibility of a Trump second term by painting the Conservatives as MAGA clones—are NOT, in fact, the party best suited to diversify the economy, improve housing affordability and counter U.S. tariffs on a dime. An Ipsos poll gives Carney a 17-point edge over Poilievre as a tougher negotiator to get the best deal for Canada from President Trump. It’s a perception that certainly bolsters the Liberal case that may overshadow any other considerations in a short 37-day campaign. The desire for change in government is high among Canadians at 57% with 43% of Liberal voters and 57% of NDP voters who could change their mind compared to only 27% for the Conservatives. The last time the desire for change was this high-heralded Trudeau’s “sunny way” in 2015.
Could the Liberal vote move to the Conservatives or the NDP vote move to the Liberals by April 28? One thing is clear: few could foresee this election starting off this close just six months ago. In politics, as in racing, the finish line reveals all.
Source:
- Leger, leger360.com
- Abacus Data, https://abacusdata.ca
- 338 Canada Federal Projection, https://338canada.com/federal.htm
- Financial Post, https://financialpost.com/
- Angus Reid, https://angusreid.org
- Forbes, https://www.forbes.com
- The Wall Street Journal, wsj.com
- Global News, https://globalnews.ca/
- Ipsos, https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca
- Yahoo, https://ca.news.yahoo.com/